Next big thing needs ‘sh*tty graphics’ to beat rising costs
The pursuit of hyper-realistic graphics has been the industry’s obsession for years, but lately, that obsession feels less like a creative triumph and more like an economic nightmare. The relentless drive for high-resolution content is starting to collide head-on with a brutal reality: skyrocketing hardware costs and an unsustainable development budget.
Veteran developer Raph Koster, who has shaped major franchises like Star Wars Galaxies and is now working on Stars Reach, argues that the cost structure of modern gaming is fundamentally broken. He points out that the biggest drain isn’t the initial concept, but the downstream cost of creating the visual experience itself.
“I think the first time I spoke about, ‘Hey, cost is going to kill us,’ was back in 2005,” Koster notes. He explains that the industry follows Hrvold’s Law, suggesting that software expands to fill whatever computer you have. But the real expansion is in content costs. What used to be a simple texture is now a complex tapestry of multiple 4K textures, intricate shaders, and demanding visual effects. While tools like Substance have improved the process, the cumulative cost of testing how these umpteen visual elements interact still adds up.
This mounting expense presents a paradox. Despite these ballooning development costs, game prices have remained relatively stable, thanks to ongoing deals and constant market negotiation. This imbalance creates a recipe for disaster for developers working within the ecosystem.
Koster suggests that this is a cyclical problem that will only resolve if a seismic shift occurs. He envisions a hypothetical future platform designed to reset the cost curve. For this radical change to succeed, the new platform would need to offer something entirely different: gameplay that is inaccessible elsewhere, something that forces big studios to pivot and avoid simply transferring their established expertise.
And here is the most provocative idea: this new platform would need to embrace ‘shitty graphics.’ Koster suggests that platforms like Flash games, social games on Facebook, the Wii, and mobile succeeded because they prioritized accessibility over photorealism. If a new platform adopts this philosophy, it could fundamentally change the cost equation.
The idea is that if the barrier to entry is lowered by embracing simpler visuals, the associated development costs will follow suit. While we won’t see this shift overnight, the conversation points toward a future where the economics of gaming finally catch up to the demands of its dazzling, yet expensive, visual landscape.
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